Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jameis Winston from EV Insight

Jameis WinstonPassing Yards

Right now, Jameis Winston’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 218.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jameis Winston’s throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 58.2% to 63.3%.
The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks project as the 10th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 61.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Jameis Winston has attempted just 27.2 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 21st percentile among QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Jameis Winston has been among the weakest quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging 180.0 yards per game while ranking in the 18th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
225
Passing Yards