Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 51.5 (-145) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions this week.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 15.2 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- Alvin Kamara has garnered 65.3% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Alvin Kamara has picked up 64.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football among running backs (93rd percentile).
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 61.3 plays per game.
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Alvin Kamara’s running efficiency (3.62 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (13th percentile among RBs).
- The Carolina Panthers defense boasts the 8th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.30 yards-per-carry.
- The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
