Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Bengals
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 30.5 (+105) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
- Tyler Conklin has run a route on 75.9% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.5% pass rate.
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Tyler Conklin’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling just 4.97 yards-per-target vs a 7.01 mark last year.
- The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have used play action on just 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
