Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 30.5 (+105) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).

Pros

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 75.9% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.5% pass rate.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Tyler Conklin’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling just 4.97 yards-per-target vs a 7.01 mark last year.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on just 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards