Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Broncos vs. 49ers
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Russell Wilson has been among the best per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.48 yards-per-target while grading out in the 76th percentile.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the NFL against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season (71.5%).
- The Denver Broncos O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 30.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
- Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.2% to 57.9%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
233
Passing Yards
233
Passing Yards
