Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Russell Wilson has been among the best per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.48 yards-per-target while grading out in the 76th percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the NFL against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season (71.5%).
The Denver Broncos O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 30.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.2% to 57.9%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
233
Passing Yards