Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Marcus Mariota from EV Insight

Marcus MariotaPassing Yards

Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 210.5 (-110) after it opened @ 207.5 (-115).

Pros

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (266.0 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the league vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season (74.3%).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.37 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the league.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 118.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 28.4 passes this week, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
204
Passing Yards