Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
O.J. HowardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bears vs. Texans
Right now, O.J. Howard’s receiving yards prop is set at 11.5 yards (-111/-123).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 11.5 (-123) after it opened @ 11.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects O.J. Howard to be a more important option in his team’s passing game this week (8.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.0% in games he has played).
- The Chicago Bears defensive ends rank as the 6th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
- The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 59.7 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
