Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for O.J. Howard from EV Insight

O.J. HowardReceiving Yards

Right now, O.J. Howard’s receiving yards prop is set at 11.5 yards (-111/-123).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 11.5 (-123) after it opened @ 11.5 (-120).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects O.J. Howard to be a more important option in his team’s passing game this week (8.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.0% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears defensive ends rank as the 6th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Cons

The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 59.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards