Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Conner from EV Insight

James ConnerRushing Yards

Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.25 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to notch 11.3 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among running backs.
James Conner has generated 50.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (81st percentile).
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
James Conner has been a much smaller part of his team’s run game this season (41.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (52.6%).
The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards