Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Falcons
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 20.5 (-115) after it opened @ 21.5 (-120).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to notch 3.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
- Noah Fant has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 17.7% since the start of last season, which places him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
- Noah Fant has accrued a colossal 33.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among TEs.
- Noah Fant has been among the leading TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 38.0 yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Noah Fant’s receiving efficiency has diminished this season, notching a mere 4.94 yards-per-target vs a 7.41 rate last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.29 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
