Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Thomas from EV Insight

Michael ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-105).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 54.5 (-105) after it opened @ 57.5 (-118).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to earn 7.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (70%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (70.0%).
The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks project as the 10th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 61.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Michael Thomas has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 1.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 11th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers defense has yielded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 127.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards