NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Packers
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
- Robert Tonyan has run a route on 62.9% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accrue 4.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
- Robert Tonyan has put up a whopping 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.50 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the NFL.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
