Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Tonyan from EV Insight

Robert TonyanReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Robert Tonyan has run a route on 62.9% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accrue 4.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan has put up a whopping 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.50 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards