Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Ian ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, Ian Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 13.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 13.5 (-135) after it opened @ 13.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Ian Thomas’s pass-game effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 8.55 yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.53 mark last season.
- The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Ian Thomas’s possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 54.4%.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 36.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.4%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (61.4%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
