NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Chargers vs. Jaguars
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Gerald Everett to accrue 5.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
- Gerald Everett has been a big part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 14.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
- Gerald Everett has put up a whopping 23.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among tight ends.
- Gerald Everett has been among the top pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 35.0 yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-worst pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season, averaging 28.59 seconds per snap.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Gerald Everett’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 82.2% to 69.0%.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.71 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
