Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Giants vs. Cowboys
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 15.5 (-115) after it opened @ 14.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 66.4 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
- The Dallas Cowboys offensive line grades out as the best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 57.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- The New York Giants pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, conceding 6.79 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.
- The New York Giants pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.82 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
- The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
