Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Broncos vs. 49ers
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 56.5 (-115) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to notch 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
- Deebo Samuel has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 25.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- Deebo Samuel has received a monstrous 25.8% of his team’s air yards since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Deebo Samuel has been among the top pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 60.0 yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.5 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
- Deebo Samuel’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.5% to 59.5%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
