Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Commanders vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 47.5 (-135) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to earn 4.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
- Dallas Goedert has been an integral part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 19.3% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
- Dallas Goedert has put up a whopping 42.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among TEs.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.41 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
