Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bears vs. Texans
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to accumulate 3.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 17.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet has posted a monstrous 39.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet has been among the leading pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 33.0 yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
- The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the league (54.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 7th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per play.
- The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
