Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 22.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accrue 4.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to be a more integral piece of his offense’s passing attack this week (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.7% in games he has played).
- Juwan Johnson has accumulated a whopping 23.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among tight ends.
- The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 61.3 plays per game.
- The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
- Juwan Johnson’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.2% to 45.2%.
- Juwan Johnson’s pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling just 6.26 yards-per-target compared to a 9.21 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
