NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Titans
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to total 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among TEs.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 23.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 76th percentile for TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.6 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, averaging just 5.08 yards-per-target vs a 8.98 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
