Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chigoziem Okonkwo from EV Insight

Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards

Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).

Pros

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to total 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among TEs.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 23.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 76th percentile for TEs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.6 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the NFL.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, averaging just 5.08 yards-per-target vs a 8.98 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards