Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Packers
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to accrue 6.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to be a more integral piece of his team’s passing offense this week (19.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.7% in games he has played).
- Allen Lazard has been among the most effective receivers in the NFL, averaging a stellar 9.38 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (60.9%) to WRs since the start of last season (60.9%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, giving up 6.94 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
