Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Allen Lazard from EV Insight

Allen LazardReceiving Yards

Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to accrue 6.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to be a more integral piece of his team’s passing offense this week (19.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.7% in games he has played).
Allen Lazard has been among the most effective receivers in the NFL, averaging a stellar 9.38 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (60.9%) to WRs since the start of last season (60.9%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, giving up 6.94 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards