Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Falcons
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 215.5 (-110) after it opened @ 211.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Geno Smith’s passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.8% to 80.5%.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the league vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season (73.3%).
- The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 5th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 31.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-least of all QBs.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
248
Passing Yards
248
Passing Yards
