College Football Best Bets of the Week: Week 9
Walter Waddell
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+100/-135).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 50.5 (-135) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 64.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 15.6 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Najee Harris has averaged 61.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (92nd percentile).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game this week (64.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (77.1% in games he has played).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Najee Harris’s ground effectiveness (3.65 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (18th percentile among running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
