Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 18.5 (-120) after it opened @ 20.5 (-120).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
Mike Gesicki has accumulated a monstrous 53.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki has been among the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 40.0 yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be a less important option in his offense’s passing game this week (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Mike Gesicki has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.01 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 6th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards