Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets
Carlos Carrasco Over 5.5 K’s -135 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pirates +215 @ Mets -255 – Total 7 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Unlike the New York Mets, we’ve been on a great run on the diamond this month. I’ve identified an edge in the strikeout market as Carlos Carrasco makes his 26th start of the season, facing off against the Pirates Thursday night.
Cookie has battled some injuries this season, but we saw him rebound against the Marlins in his most recent outing, striking out six batters and posting a 14.9% SwStr% (swinging-strike percentage), 1.4% higher than his season average. Carrasco has induced the highest swing percentage in the NL, with most of those swings coming on pitches outside the strike zone. Overall, CC has posted a career high 40.0% swing percentage, about 5% higher than his 35.1% career mark. The 35-year-old righty has the third-best SwStr% in the National League at 13.5% and the 15th-best K%. His chase rate been elite in 2022, ranking in the 96th percentile.
The righty features three pitches more than 20% of the time: fastball, slider and changeup. Carrasco’s second most thrown pitch is his slider (25.6%), which is his best punchout pitch with a 33.1% K%. The Pirates have struck out the fourth most in baseball against sliders this season. The Buccos also have the most strikeouts in baseball against changeups, which is Carrasco’s third most thrown pitch (23.6%) and his second-best strikeout pitch with a 29% K%.
The Pirates have struggled at the plate against right-handed pitchers for the entire 2022 season, posting the third worst wRC+ in baseball at 83 (17% below league average). Pittsburgh has the fourth-highest strikeout percentage in the Majors against righties this season at 25%, and that percentage hasn’t changed since July 1. Overall the Pirates average the second-most strikeouts in MLB at 9.28 per game. A big reason for that is the Buccos having the lowest chase-contact rate in baseball at 51.7%. Pittsburgh has the highest CSW% (called strikes plus swinging strike percentage) in the majors at 29.4%. Their lineup could be in for a long night versus Cookie and this Mets bullpen.
Carlos Carrasco should be able to pitch into the sixth inning against this Pirates lineup, and I have him projected for six strikeouts. Alex Blickle’s Strikeout Model at FTN agrees with this over. Alex’s K Model projects Cookie for over 5.7 K’s. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the board.
Bet: Carlos Carrasco 5.5 K’s -135
