Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 41.5 (-106) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 25.47 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to earn 6.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among TEs.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards