Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Cordarrelle Patterson from EV Insight

Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards

Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 48.5 (-137) after it opened @ 56.5 (-125).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Cordarrelle Patterson to total 13.8 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Cordarrelle Patterson has been a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this season (57.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (45.4%).
Cordarrelle Patterson’s running efficiency has improved this year, compiling 5.83 yards-per-carry compared to a mere 3.95 figure last year.

Cons

The Falcons are a big 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.04 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends grade out as the best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards