Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are an enormous 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 5.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet has totaled a whopping 41.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet’s 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for tight ends.

Cons

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards