NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are an enormous 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 5.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has totaled a whopping 41.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet’s 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for tight ends.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
