Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Titans
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
- The Buffalo Bills have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions in this game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to earn 9.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 10-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Stefon Diggs has been among the bottom wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.07 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 20th percentile.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards
82
Receiving Yards
