NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
At the beginning of each week, we highlight our favorite college football bets so you can get in early and lock in the best possible odds. This companion piece will drop each Friday and I will talk about some advantageous parlays you can consider and the reasons why I favor them so much. These could be as simple as picking a side and the total of a single game or stringing together a couple of games into the same parlay.
I’ve dug in and identified two parlays that I think are worth jumping on this week. Week 3 offers some really intriguing matchups and I’m excited to share with you guys my favorite parlays.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Texas A&M
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Syracuse Orange
(Oklahoma -11, O/U 64.5; Texas A&M -6, O/U 44.5; Syracuse -1.5, O/U 60; DraftKings Sportsbook)
Two of these three games were highlighted in my betting preview writeup from earlier this week, and my confidence hasn’t wavered a bit. The spreads have held steady this week as well, so we are still getting solid value. I’m all over Oklahoma, Miami and Purdue this week, so let’s throw them all together in a parlay, which gives us a chance for a big return.
Nebraska will likely be in the game for the first couple of quarters but I’m expecting them to do what they do best by the fourth. What is that, you ask? Well, their propensity to make a late mistake, which eventually causes them to lose isn’t going to change anytime soon just because they canned Scott Frost. The Oklahoma offense is a well-oiled machine early on, so they are going to put points on the board flawlessly throughout. Nebraska is 113th in passing defense and 115th in rushing defense. The Sooners defense isn’t what I would call elite either but ultimately Dillon Gabriel will wear them down to the point where they pull away for a 14 point victory.
Texas A&M announced Thursday that they are finally benching Haynes King and will turn to LSU transfer QB Max Johnson. He threw for over 2,800 yards last year and 27 TDs to just 6 INTs, so this is a smart decision by Jimbo Fisher. I still don’t think it’ll be enough for the Aggies to cover against a red-hot Hurricanes squad though. Their elite rushing game and the strong QB play of Tyler Van Dyke will ultimately be too much for the Aggies to handle even at home.
Lastly, I’m taking Purdue straight up against a Syracuse team that seems to be playing above their heads early on. There is a lot of chatter about the crowd noise in the dome causing Syracuse opponents a lot of trouble but that is being blown out of proportion for the most part. The Purdue offense is a high-volume attack that may take a few minutes to adjust to the noise but ultimately will do what they do best, which is scoring points. The Boilermakers offense is averaging over 320 yards per game through the air and nearly 150 on the ground. They are one dimensional at times with their reliance on passing but I’m just not convinced yet that Syracuse is suddenly an iron curtain defense.
Best Bet
Purdue ML (+100), Oklahoma -11 (-110) and Miami (FL) +6 (-110) — Combined +628
Dillon Gabriel Passing Yardage Prop
Shaun Shivers Rushing Yardage Prop
Jalen McMillan Receiving Yardage Prop
(Dillon Gabriel 292.5 Passing Yards, Shaun Shivers 74.5 Rushing Yards, Jalen McMillan 59.5 Receiving Yards, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Shifting gears a bit, we are going to look at player props. Last week was a bit of a struggle when it came to props, but coming into Week 3 I have refined my process and have found three props that are drastically lower than they should be.
I’ve expressed my excitement for Gabriel and the Sooners this week from a DFS perspective so it makes sense for us to take advantage of some prop numbers from that game as well. Gabriel has yet to throw for 300 yards in a Sooners uniform this season but just barely missed the mark with 296 a week ago. Considering the fact that Nebraska gave up over 400 yards to Kyle Vantrease in their last game and you can see why I’m so confident in the talented Gabriel to decimate this number.
There are so few bell cow backs left in college football these days, but Shivers is bucking the trend by dominating the backfield touches for Indiana. He has accounted for 75.3% of the Hoosiers’ total rushing yards while commanding 72.9% of the total carries. He has had touches of 18 and 21 in each of his first two games so there won’t be a lack of opportunity for Shivers to eclipse this total.
Finally, we have Washington Huskies stud WR Jalen McMillan. The team was without Rome Odunze last week, which clearly led to an increase in production for McMillan and he is expected to return against Michigan State Saturday. This may lead you to question why I’m attacking this number so allow me to ease your concerns. He has a target share over 18% and has almost 30% of the Huskies’ total receiving yards. In his only game this year with Rom Odunze playing, McMillan was targeted 8 times and caught 5 of those passes for 87 yards. Sparty had one of the worst secondaries in the country last year giving up almost 330 yards per game to opposing QBs. Huskies QB Michael Penix also has good history against the Spartans throwing for 320 yards/2 TDs in 2020 and 286 yards/3 TDs in 2019. Bottom line, the Huskies won’t be afraid to air it out and challenge this Michigan State defense and Jalen McMillan is going to shred this laughably low number.
Best Bet
Dillon Gabriel OVER 292.5 Passing Yards (-115), Shaun Shivers OVER 74.5 Rushing Yards (-120) and Jalen McMillan OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — Combined +540
