NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.2% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Allen Lazard has played on 76.3% of his team’s snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
- Allen Lazard has been among the most efficient receivers in football, averaging a stellar 9.54 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, surrendering 8.57 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Packers are a heavy 10-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
- The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 132.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
