Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 20.5 (-110) after it opened @ 16.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accrue 4.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.6 plays per game.
Juwan Johnson’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.2% to 38.0%.
Juwan Johnson’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling just 7.92 yards-per-target compared to a 9.21 rate last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.48 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards