NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Brevin JordanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Texans
Right now, Brevin Jordan’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 14.5 (-115) after it opened @ 13.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a giant 10-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
- Brevin Jordan has run a route on 43.8% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 75th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Brevin Jordan has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging a measly 6.05 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile.
- The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 37.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, conceding 7.05 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
