Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brevin Jordan from EV Insight

Brevin JordanReceiving Yards

Right now, Brevin Jordan’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 14.5 (-115) after it opened @ 13.5 (-110).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a giant 10-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
Brevin Jordan has run a route on 43.8% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 75th percentile among TEs.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Brevin Jordan has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging a measly 6.05 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 37.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, conceding 7.05 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards