Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 45.5 (-115) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).

Pros

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to accrue 5.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Dallas Goedert has been a big part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 19.3% since the start of last season, which places him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
Dallas Goedert has put up a whopping 42.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 48.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (64.3%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (64.3%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the 6th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards