Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Giants vs. Panthers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 63.6 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to total 8.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The New York Giants pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.11 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the league.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
