NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Cooper KuppReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. Falcons
Right now, Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 95.5 (-145) after it opened @ 93.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Cooper Kupp has run a route on 97.1% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Cooper Kupp to notch 12.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Rams are a big 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 61.4 plays per game.
- The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Los Angeles Rams have utilized play action on a measly 21.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
117
Receiving Yards
117
Receiving Yards
