Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 295.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 295.5 (-110) after it opened @ 303.5 (-130).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 219.0 per game) versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
287
Passing Yards
287
Passing Yards
