Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Chark from EV Insight

D.J. CharkReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Chark’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Panthers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
D.J. Chark has put up a colossal 74.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 57.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
D.J. Chark has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, completing a mere 58.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 12th percentile among wide receivers
The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 130.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards