Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (+100) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Panthers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to notch 4.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
- Hayden Hurst has been heavily involved in his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 15.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
- Hayden Hurst’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 79.1% to 69.3%.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 26.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
