Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 263.5 (-129) after it opened @ 276.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 65.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 42.2 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all QBs.
Cons
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season (66.3%).
- The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
305
Passing Yards
305
Passing Yards
