Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 214.5 (-110) after it opened @ 209.5 (-115).
Pros
- Mac Jones has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season with an impressive 68.4% Completion%, checking in at the 94th percentile.
- Mac Jones has been among the most efficient passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 7.49 yards-per-target while checking in at the 75th percentile.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 9th-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.3 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 33.2 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards
237
Passing Yards
