Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Zamir WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Raiders vs. Broncos
Right now, Zamir White’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-110).
Pros
- A rushing game script is implied by the Raiders being a 3-point favorite this week.
- At the moment, the 8th-most run-focused team in the league (42.0% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Raiders.
- The model projects Zamir White to total 21.0 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Zamir White has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (7.0).
- The Denver Broncos defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 5.27 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Raiders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
- The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards
87
Rushing Yards
