Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The leading projections forecast Tyler Conklin to accumulate 4.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
When talking about air yards, Tyler Conklin grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among TEs this year, accruing a striking 39.0 per game.
Tyler Conklin’s 34.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 87th percentile for TEs.
With a stellar 37.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (83rd percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin has been as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the league.

Cons

The predictive model expects the New York Jets as the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Jets to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.5%) to tight ends this year (69.5%).
The Patriots pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against tight ends this year, conceding 6.79 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards