Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-120) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).

Pros

A passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.
The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a staggering 62.1 per game on average).
The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.1 per game) this year.
In this contest, Adam Thielen is forecasted by the model to land in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.9 targets.
Adam Thielen’s 66.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year shows a remarkable boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 47.0 figure.

Cons

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to pass on 54.5% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards