NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-120) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- A passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.
- The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a staggering 62.1 per game on average).
- The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.1 per game) this year.
- In this contest, Adam Thielen is forecasted by the model to land in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.9 targets.
- Adam Thielen’s 66.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year shows a remarkable boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 47.0 figure.
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to pass on 54.5% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.
- In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
