First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Ty ChandlerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Lions vs. Vikings
Right now, Ty Chandler’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- At the moment, the 9th-quickest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.
- The projections expect Ty Chandler to be a more integral piece of his offense’s running game in this game (60.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (33.2% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to start backup quarterback Nick Mullens this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- This week’s line indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- The leading projections forecast the Vikings as the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.0% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 88.0 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
