Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! TNT Thursdays have finally returned! I assume all my complaining in this piece made its way up to Adam Silver, who then rectified the situation. Now, I’m not sure why they chose to play only two games, especially one involving a team that is not trying to win games, but I am trying to just be happy for what I do have. The TNT crew is the best show for any sport. They provide interesting commentary that grows your understanding of the game and somehow still manage to be funny and enjoyable.
I’m already excited to hear what Shaquille O’Neal and Charles Barkley have to say about the San Antonio Spurs managing a rookie’s minutes so aggressively and what Kenny Smith will teach us about the ever-evolving Golden State Warriors. Every Thursday night going forward is must watch TV for me, and I can only hope that we see more TNT Tuesday games.
Let’s dive into both matchups, see what we might expect to happen on the court, and hopefully find a wager with enough value to be worth our money.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs
Current Line – Bucks -9, 247.5
My Projection – Bucks 128, Spurs 117
Key Injuries – Khris Middleton is questionable. Zach Collins is out.
The Bucks can’t seem to solve the Indiana Pacers, but Thursday should be a much easier problem. The Spurs are fairly clearly tanking as they continue to limit the minutes of their best players, especially late in games. Gregg Popovich has even gone as far as pulling two of their best players — Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones — out of the starting lineup. All of that adds up to a big, easy victory for the Bucks, even though it is their third game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back. My full game numbers agree with the market, but I think if we go down to a smaller market, we can find a good bet to make. Milwaukee has been a slow starting team all season, especially on the road where their net rating in the first quarter is -9.8. I’m still not exactly sure why, but it seems to take them time to find their rhythm and play great basketball outside of their home arena. That problem is made even worse tonight because of the fatigue of the bad schedule spot. In general, teams start slow in the second night of a back-to-back and find their best basketball in the second half. Enter the Spurs, who have a full game net rating of -11.6 for the season, but also have a first quarter net rating of -0.6, which improves to +7.7 when they are at home. As I mentioned earlier, there is a lot of lineup chicanery, but not in the first 12 minutes of the game. Victor Wembanyama’s minutes are down to 24 per game after playing 30 minutes per game to start the season. That’s bad for the full game, but most of his minutes come in the 1st quarter which means we get the best version of the Spurs to start the game. Put it all together and I love that we get to bet San Antonio +3.5 or even +3 in the 1st quarter tonight. I was able to find a +3.5 at -120, but +3 at -110 or better is a great bet as well.
Bet
San Antonio Spurs 1Q +3.5 (-120, BetMGM)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors +3.5, 235.5
As much as I love Steve Kerr’s willingness to change the starting lineup as a basketball fan, it’s very annoying as a basketball handicapper. For Golden State to be successful, they need to keep tinkering, but that makes it difficult to know what to expect each game. Pulling Chris Paul into the starting lineup should allow Stephen Curry to play more off the ball where he is most dangerous. Draymond Green had been the facilitator who found Curry coming of screens for open shots, but with him gone Curry was initially forced into handling the ball more which makes it harder for him to find open space on the floor. The other recent change was bringing Trayce Jackson-Davis in for Kevon Looney. That gives them more speed and versatility, although does make it tougher against talented big men like the one they’ll face tonight. Now, no one in the NBA has a good answer for Nikola Jokic, but the Warriors are particularly ill equipped to handle the task. I make the Denver Nuggets a five-point favorite, but as mentioned, I’m not sure how good my rating of the Warriors is, and this is the first night of a back-to-back for Denver, who plays at home Friday. I would imagine the Nuggets would want to give the Warriors their full attention tonight, but historically, Denver tanks a bit in the first night of a back-to-back to save energy for the second night. Long story long, there’s just too much unknown for me to make a confident recommendation for this game. It should be a fun game and a chance to learn even more about the “new” Warriors, but I can’t find any bets of value to make.
