Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (+105) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 66.4% of their plays: the highest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Terry McLaurin is predicted by the model to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
Terry McLaurin has accrued far more air yards this season (93.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).

Cons

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.
Terry McLaurin’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 67.4% to 60.0%.
Terry McLaurin’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 8.07 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 mark last year.
Terry McLaurin’s skills in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, totaling just 4.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.84 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards