Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-113).

Pros

The Giants rank as the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 40.8% run rate.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Saquon Barkley is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs with 19.2 carries.
Among all running backs, Saquon Barkley grades out in the 97th percentile for carries this year, making up 66.8% of the workload in his offense’s running game.

Cons

The Giants will be rolling with backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
The Giants offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league last year at run-game blocking.
Saquon Barkley’s 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year marks a significant drop-off in his rushing skills over last year’s 78.0 mark.
This year, the fierce Philadelphia Eagles run defense has surrendered a paltry 100.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 9th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards