Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
College football has just one game left, and it’s the national championship between the best two teams in the sport as Michigan takes on Washington. Let’s break down this game from a betting perspective and find the value.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Michigan vs. Washington
7:30 p.m. ET Monday, Jan. 8
Michigan -4.5
How We Got Here
Monday’s semifinals saw both games come down to the last play. Michigan beat Alabama in overtime 27-20 in the Rose Bowl. The Wolverines went down the field in eight plays with 4:41 left to tie the contest up before getting a Blake Corum touchdown in OT to pull out the victory. They held the Crimson Tide to 288 total yards and overcame some unusual mistakes on special teams as well. Washington held off Texas 37-31 in the Sugar Bowl as they made the crucial stop on the last play of the contest. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 430 yards and two touchdowns in the victory, but the Huskies made it closer than it should have been.
Michigan Offense vs. Washington Defense
It’s all about how the Huskies slow down Corum and the ground game. The Wolverines are one of the slowest-paced offenses in the country, and many believe that their best defense is keeping the O on the field. Washington’s rush defense held opponents to 133.8 yards per game on the ground, with only three opponents having their back crack the 100-yard mark against them. The question will be is if Michigan will continue to run into a stacked box or whether they will use the play action game to get guys like Roman Wilson and Colston Loveland open. Washington is 115th in opponent first downs allowed, which plays right into Michigan, a team that doesn’t mind getting 3 or 4 yards per play and working its way down field that way. The Wolverines are top 15 in time of possession.
Washington Offense vs. Michigan Defense
The fascinating aspect of this matchup is that neither sides has not seen someone execute as well as the other side does. Michigan has the No. 2 pass defense in the country — Oregon being the best opponent Washington has faced in that stat, and they have allowed almost 70 yards per game more than the Wolverines. On the other side, Washington is averaging over 70 yards passing per game more than Michigan’s best opponent, which was actually Maryland, and Taulia Tagovailoa had an awful game against them with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Michigan has a fantastic defensive line, but so did Texas, and they didn’t get Penix down once. The other key factor is the health of Dillon Johnson who won’t be effective running but is a reliable pass blocker and option in the play action pass game. He certainly didn’t look 100% leaving the field from the Sugar Bowl but reports say his health is pretty solid. How much of that is gamesmanship though?
Prediction
There is nothing that will faze Michigan who has dealt with the sign-stealing controversy and two stints without their head coach. The Wolverines are playing with such confidence and that’s tough to fade. I’m picking them to win, but I’m also going with Washington to cover. I can see this game being something like 28-24 with the Huskies having the ball last trying to move it down the field. I just can’t fade the Wolverines in this situation though, because in the end I think their time-consuming drives just prevent UW from being the explosive team the whole game. They will certainly get their big plays, but not enough in the end.
With regards to player props, I’m going back to playing tight ends against Michigan. Amari Niblack is going to be a fantastic player for Alabama, but he didn’t play very much because the Crimson Tide used their blocking TE more. Jack Westover may be the fourth or fifth option, but I think he’s going to be a reliable option here. He’s coming off a 6-reception, 59-yard contest against Texas and has gone over 25 yards in four of his last five overall. I also think Ja’Lynn Polk’s number is too low at 51.5 as he’s gone over this in all but one game this season. One has to figure that Will Johnson will be following Odunze around the field a lot so Polk could see a little more action. On the Michigan side, I’m going with McCarthy not to throw an interception. He’s only done so in two games this year and I just don’t see them calling a ton of risk worthy throws for him especially since they want to keep the ball away from Penix. Finally, I’m taking a shot with Corum getting two touchdowns. He’s done so in five of six and six of his last eight games so a plus price here is very nice for the primary red zone option.
The Picks
Washington +5 (-119)
Jack Westover over 24.5 receiving yards (-130)
Ja’Lynn Polk over 51.5 receiving yards (-125)
J.J. McCarthy No INT (-115, BetRivers)
Blake Corum 2+ Touchdowns (+123, BetRivers)
