Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Eagles vs. Giants
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-115) after it opened @ 67.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Eagles are a massive 17-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Miles Sanders has rushed for a lot more yards per game (76.0) this year than he did last year (57.0).
- The New York Giants defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.30 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The New York Giants defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have faced a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have used motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
