Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Khalil HerbertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-120/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-120) after it opened @ 56.5 (-112).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Bears as the 4th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 47.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
- Khalil Herbert has received 37.6% of his offense’s rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Khalil Herbert has generated 50.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (75th percentile).
- The opposing side have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (132 per game) vs. the Packers defense this year.
Cons
- A throwing game script is implied by the Bears being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
- Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 63.4 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
